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Spike In US Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths

Submitted by vermont on February 1, 2010 – 5:07 am15 Comments

cdcThe CDC Week 3 influenza report has been released and once again there were no reported cases of seasonal influenza A.  2 cases of influenza B were reported and the vast majority of cases (98%) were pandemic H1N1, indicating seasonal influenza A has been crowded out in the US.  The frequency of influenza detection has risen slightly and is at the highest level since week 50, signaling the end of the fall wave and the beginning of a winter wave.  However, although the detection rate rose slightly, the P&I deaths spiked higher and are now well above the epidemic threshold and as high as it has been since the peak of the 2008/2009 season.

This dramatic jump in deaths raises concerns that the current H1N1 is more virulent and lethal than the H1N1 circulating in the fall. The early appearance of that virus dramatically increased the P&I, which then declined as the H1N1 levels declined.  However, the current jump is well ahead of such a corresponding jump in H1N1, which would support a more lethal H1N1.

Recent reports from Tennessee have described a higher frequency of children with H1N1 entering the ICU as well as a higher percentage dying.  These results are early, but mimic the increase in case fatality rate in eastern Ukraine in association with the release of sequences from Oct/Nov which had a strong association of D225G/N with fatal cases, who had significant lung damage.

The low number of positives in the US may reflect a sampling problem.  Most tested samples have been from hospitalized patients, but the fatal and severe cases frequently are associated with a rapid movement of virus to the lungs and a high false negative rate.  A high false negative rate would keep lab confirmed cases artificially low and preclude aggressive antiviral treatment.  Similarly the increase in H274Y may also impact treatments involving Tamiflu.

Since most H1N1 fatalities have been young adults, an age distribution on fatal cases would be useful.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01291003/Week3_PI.html




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15 Comments »

  • carrie lynch says:

    has anyone wondered out loud if the vaccine is leaving folks more susceptible?

    There is never any data with regards to the number of folks hospitalized or dying that had the h1n1 vaccination.
    would someone tell me why this data does not register as important?

    thank you

    [Reply]

    Laurie Reply:

    Yes, according to the ancient medical science and wisdom of Ayurveda, that is exactly what immunizations do. They are harsh and stimulate the immune system temporarily but is one does not have enough of the natural immunity (developed in the body by ingesting good nutrients, pure oxygen and water)then the effects are short lived and just like coffee or any other stimulant….leaves the body weaker.

    [Reply]

  • Nancy Leer says:

    I would like to see more emphasis on the regular influenza and pneumonia, for the season, especially focusing on antivirals that would keep suseptible people from going into pneumonia so fast.

    [Reply]

    Adele Anderson Reply:

    AS a homeopath, I recommend that my clients take a weekly dose of Thymuline for 5 weeks; at the beginning of flu season; boosting the immune response and therefore offering greater immunity, or if they have initiating symptoms of the flu, a dose of Oscilloccinum which usually takes care of incidence.

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  • Diane says:

    I agree, I would like to know the same thing.

    Who took the vaccines and who has the complications.

    Also, it is a little odd that the $20 H1N1 vaccines offered in the fall are now free every where you turn. They can’t seem to give them away after spending who know how much for them! Maybe they should just back off and take a different approach next year.

    [Reply]

  • Kaycee Schippers says:

    From what I have been told, the problem is the vaccine. The vaccine makes the virus mutate and it comes back stronger.

    [Reply]

  • tom says:

    that would be too logical. and besides, we don’t want to have the masses mistrusting government officials now, do we? all kidding aside, when you have seemingly intelligent and successful people like bill gates donating $10 billion recently to vaccine proliferation, it makes you wonder. it makes no sense at all.

    [Reply]

  • Thomas Peterson says:

    Until corporate influences are totally removed from our government and its agencies, the apparent incompetency of our government and its agencies to see common sense problems and solutions will be with us. Our government is looking more and more like simply a propaganda machine for corporations and nothing more.

    [Reply]

    Jay Whitlock Reply:

    Thomas you are right on! Our government are just puppets on strings being jerked around to whoever is lining their pockets to get their agenda passed.
    I would be embarrassed to be a politician these days with all of the light shining on how incompetent they are to make their own decisions or to at least make decisions that the majority of Americans want and would benefit from.

    [Reply]

  • Arlen Comfort says:

    NO NUMBERS . . . WHAT ARE THEY HIDDING?

    “This dramatic jump in deaths raises concerns that the current H1N1 is more virulent and lethal than the H1N1 circulating in the fall”
    WHERE ARE TRHE NUMBERS? “jump in deaths” HOW MANY?

    “Recent reports from Tennessee have described a higher frequency of children with H1N1 entering the ICU as well as a higher percentage dying.”
    HOW HIGH IS HIGHER? HOW MANY ENTERED THE ICU??

    “The low number of positives in the US may reflect a sampling problem”
    WHAT IS THIS LOW NUMBER OF POSITIVES?
    HOW DO THEY KNOW IT IS WRONG?

    “but the fatal and severe cases frequently are associated with a rapid movement of virus to the lungs and a high false negative rate”
    HOW MANY FATAL AND SEVERE CASES?
    WHAT IS THE FALSE NEGATIVE RATE?

    “Since most H1N1 fatalities have been young adults, an age distribution on fatal cases would be useful.”
    HOW DO THEY KNOW THAT MOST FATALITIES HAVE BEEN IN YOUNG ADULTS IF THEY DON’T YET HAVE A USEFUL AGE DISTRIBUTION LIST?

    [Reply]

  • Didn’t we read a news report in the last couple of months, which showed that a very low percentage of those cases being reported as H1N1 actually were tested and verified? Didn’t we also read that the CDC has stopped actual testing (and suggested that state agencies stop testing) for H1N1? As I remember, the CDC suggested that any respiratory problem be reported as H1N1.

    Therefore, it would be obvious that seasonal influenza A & B would be dramatically reducing in the numbers they collect, and that H1N1 would be rising.

    I certainly don’t think that we can believe any statistics reported from the CDC, if they have stopped actual testing and are simply deciding that every sniffle is H1N1.

    [Reply]

  • Mary says:

    The CDC cannot be trusted any more than the FDA, they are all in this thing together and will kowtow to whom ever is footing the bill for their next research project. They get a preordained answer then jam the research into the parameters and come up with the answers that they were told to arrive at. We the “sheeple” have got to take control of our own health and take a more natural approach to it whenever possible and stop depending on the government and their puppets! And along that vein we must all go to the polls in November and get rid of these career criminal politicians! Get involved with GOoOH.com
    (Get Out of Our House)

    [Reply]

  • Stan says:

    Point, Rodger; but the bottom-line indicator would be the virulence of what is coming around now. I think Kaycee’s point is valid here: the vaccine could very well have caused the virus to mutate in response. And who knows if that could have been the plan from the beginning. This was a tricky, multi-lined virus, remember. All it may have needed was a tweak here or there, and wham…

    And Tamiflu or Relenza would be definitely out as a prophylactic. It needs something stronger, like MMS, or a good silver colloid, to treat it fundamentally, not just symptomatically. A bad business, all in all. Well; good for business…

    [Reply]

    Laurie Reply:

    Most likely, it is that after a harsh, cold winter people’s immune systems are stressed and they are more susceptible to viruses, any of them, mutated or not. There is nothing that can protect us from viruses and bacteria except our own strong immune system. They answer is to build up our immune system. This is what the corporate world does not want you to know. So, be smart. Eat totally organic and takes the right immuney building supplemnets, whole food vitamins, minerals and probiotics.

    [Reply]

  • Elissa Mericle-Gray says:

    I wonder, could the H1N1 vaccine that was given to individuals been shed by those individuals and thus created a newer strain of virus that is more virilant? Anyway, I don’t trust big Pharma with anything that has to do with our health and nothing is surely beneath them.

    [Reply]

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